International Politics

Brexit Leader’s Epic Comeback: Farage Set to Win!

Nigel Farage, the formidable architect of Brexit, is back in the political arena with a bid to secure a seat in Parliament in the upcoming July 4th general election. Farage, who has long been a thorn in the side of the establishment, has his sights set on the seaside constituency of Clacton. Despite being caught off guard by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s snap election call, Farage has declared his intent to lead Reform UK and unseat the Tories in Clacton.

Farage’s impact on British politics is undeniable. He led the charge to liberate the UK from the grip of the European Union, challenging the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. Yet, despite his influence, Farage has never held office in Britain—a point his detractors frequently highlight. Farage himself acknowledges that most of his past parliamentary bids were more about amplifying his nationalist-populist message rather than securing a seat, with the exception of his 2015 run in South Thanet, which was marred by Tory election expense scandals.

However, Farage is not without electoral success. He served as a British Member of the European Parliament from 1999 until Brexit in 2020. His Brexit Party’s triumph in the 2019 EU Parliament elections, where it secured 5.2 million votes compared to Theresa May’s Conservatives’ 1.5 million, demonstrated his significant appeal to voters. Despite the UK’s first-past-the-post system favoring the two main establishment parties and the short campaign window for the snap election, there is growing sentiment that this might be Farage’s moment.

On Monday, Farage expressed his determination to once again outpace the Tories in vote share and vowed to replace them as the true conservative opposition. He promised to lead a “political revolt” against the Westminster establishment and finally deliver on Brexit’s promises, such as ending mass migration. Former Downing Street pollster James Johnson and Financial Times correspondent Jim Pickard both suggest that Farage stands a strong chance of winning Clacton, citing high levels of voter dissatisfaction with the main parties.

The political climate in Clacton appears particularly conducive for Farage. The region suffers from significant economic inactivity, with rates far above the national average, and has been a stronghold of support for Brexit, with over 70 percent backing the referendum. Clacton is also the only constituency to have previously elected a member of Farage’s former party, UKIP, to the House of Commons. The current Conservative MP, Giles Watling, faces waning enthusiasm, further opening the door for Farage’s insurgent campaign.

Farage’s decision to target Clacton was likely bolstered by a January poll from Survation, indicating he would win with 37 percent of the vote, ten points ahead of Watling. Local Tories, frustrated with their party’s decision to keep Watling as their candidate, have expressed support for Farage. As one local Tory councillor put it, “Giles Watling starred in Bread but now he is toast.” Farage’s return to the fray signals a potential seismic shift in British politics, with the populist leader poised to make a significant impact.

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